Research Assistant Dr. Sümeyye Uzun of Ondokuz Mayıs University (OMU) has warned that drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea are threatening maritime trade and crew safety, calling for a long-term maritime corridor agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Dr. Uzun, a researcher in the Department of International Trade and Logistics at OMU’s Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, assessed the potential regional economic consequences of attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea.

She noted that Samsun Port is among the Turkish ports most directly affected by the war because its geographical location makes it an important logistics link for trade with Russia, Ukraine, and other Black Sea countries.

“Damaged vessels being brought to Samsun Port means that the port is taking on the role of a natural safe haven in addition to its commercial function,” Uzun said. “Although this creates some advantages for Samsun Port in terms of repair and port services, these cannot possibly compensate for the risks to human life in the Black Sea or the loss of trade volumes and logistics activity.”

She added that higher insurance premiums and freight costs, together with growing security concerns, are leading to the cancellation of voyages.

According to Uzun, the decision by a Samsun-based company to suspend Black Sea operations following attacks on vessels in its fleet has consequences for the local economy, reducing both commercial and logistics revenues as well as employment. She noted that similar risks also apply to other Black Sea ports, including Trabzon.

“Alternative Routes Cannot Fully Replace the Black Sea”

Uzun identified security as one of the most significant consequences of the attacks for Turkish companies trading with Russia and Ukraine.

“The attacks represent, first and foremost, a threat to human life aboard commercial vessels, and that is a risk that goes beyond a financial cost companies can simply absorb,” she said.

Citing an assessment by the Turkish Coaster Owners and Operators Association (KOSDER), Uzun noted that the deaths of seafarers in attacks demonstrate the seriousness of the threat to crew safety. The issue, she stressed, cannot be resolved by individual companies alone and requires a comprehensive approach involving law, diplomacy, and governments.

While cancelling or completely suspending Black Sea voyages may initially appear to offer companies a solution, Uzun warned that this could create even greater problems.

“The Black Sea is an important gateway for grain and energy in global trade,” she said. “Stopping voyages would deepen the problem, causing companies to lose revenue and employment while potentially contributing to food and energy crises that could seriously affect Türkiye.”

Among exporters and importers, companies operating on narrow profit margins and those trading in perishable goods such as fresh fruit and vegetables would be particularly vulnerable.

If uncertainty persists, Uzun said, larger companies could eventually shift their production, inventory, capacity, and delivery planning towards alternative routes.

Trade with Ukraine could be redirected through Romania and Bulgaria, while trade with Russia could use routes through Georgia or Azerbaijan. These corridors are already in use, but Uzun emphasized that their capacity is limited.

“They are suitable for relatively low-volume transportation, but they do not have the capacity to handle the entirety of the freight currently transported through the Black Sea,” she said.

Black Sea Shipping Is “Almost a Necessity”

Explaining the limitations of alternative corridors, Uzun noted that trade through Romania and Bulgaria can combine inland waterway transport along the Danube with rail and road transportation.

However, the Danube’s depth restrictions make parts of the route unsuitable for high-tonnage vessels. Transferring cargo from larger ships to smaller vessels would create substantial additional costs in both time and money.

Rail transport also presents difficulties because of differences between the railway gauges used in Ukraine and those in Türkiye and much of Europe. Road transport, meanwhile, is better suited to smaller cargo volumes than maritime shipping and requires greater fuel consumption, increasing costs for businesses.

Uzun said similar limitations apply to routes through Georgia and Azerbaijan for Türkiye’s trade with Russia. Although attacks on these alternative corridors are comparatively less frequent, security risks still need to be considered.

“The Balkan and Caucasus corridors can therefore only serve as complementary routes for Türkiye’s trade with Russia and Ukraine. They can never be complete substitutes,” Uzun said. “Conducting this trade through the Black Sea rather than alternative routes is almost a necessity.”

For this reason, she argued that diplomacy should be used to establish long-term, sustainable maritime corridors similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Uzun pointed to trade data from 2022 as an indication of the potential economic significance of maintaining secure maritime trade. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Türkiye’s combined foreign trade with Ukraine and Russia increased by approximately 79.6 percent in 2022 compared with 2021, when the Grain Corridor agreement was in effect.

Türkiye’s Trade with Russia and Ukraine Is Contracting

Uzun said Türkiye is already experiencing a decline in trade with Russia and Ukraine as maritime transportation in the Black Sea becomes increasingly risky.

According to TÜİK data, Türkiye’s combined foreign trade volume with the two countries fell from USD 58.8 billion in 2024 to USD 55.8 billion in 2025, a decline of approximately 5.13 percent.

“If no solution is found to the increasing security risk, the contraction in Türkiye’s trade volume with these countries is expected to deepen,” Uzun said.

She noted that many shipping companies are already reluctant to send vessels to Russian and Ukrainian ports because of security concerns.

If Turkish exporters continue to encounter difficulties finding vessels to transport their goods to Russia and Ukraine, Türkiye could experience a significant decline in export volumes. Disruptions to imports of grain, petroleum, and other industrial inputs from the two countries could also create additional inflationary pressure by reducing supply and increasing production costs.

“A Maritime Corridor Similar to the Grain Corridor Should Be Established”"

Assessing the broader strategic context, Uzun said attacks by both sides are primarily intended to weaken the other party’s wartime economy and logistics capacity.

Russia, she explained, seeks to restrict Ukraine’s access to the sea, disrupt military logistics and supply chains, and thereby weaken its capacity to continue the war. Ukraine, meanwhile, argues that its attacks are intended to disrupt Russian logistics, while also seeking to interfere with Russian grain and energy exports and increase economic pressure on Moscow.

“In short, although the side carrying out an attack may appear to benefit from the costs it imposes on the other side, rising trade and logistics costs ultimately harm both parties over the longer term,” Uzun said. “This also creates uncertainty over which side actually benefits.”

She stressed that attacks on commercial vessels also impose substantial costs on countries that are not parties to the war, including Türkiye.

Despite pursuing a policy of balance, Türkiye is among the countries most affected by instability in the Black Sea, she said. Uzun argued that Türkiye could potentially assume a strategic mediation role in efforts either to halt attacks on commercial shipping or, at a minimum, to establish a maritime corridor similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Türkiye’s control of the Turkish Straits under the Montreux Convention, together with its growing defence capabilities, also strengthens its geopolitical position in the region, she noted.

However, Uzun cautioned that any potential benefits arising from this position rest on an extremely costly and fragile foundation.

Beyond the economic consequences, she stressed that threats to crew safety reveal the human dimension of the conflict.

“Attacks on commercial vessels that endanger neutral civilian crew members create profound psychological trauma for people who are simply trying to earn a living,” Uzun said.

“Ultimately, it may be uncertain who benefits from these attacks, but, as is so often the case in war, the heaviest price is paid by those who had no say in the decision to fight.”